A lot of people are asking me the same thing: "Tech companies are cutting jobs. How can SF home prices keep climbing?" Here are the short answers.
1. Is San Francisco really that hot right now?
Yes. Redfin puts the median SF home price around $1.7 million. About a third of Bay Area purchases this spring were all cash, and some homes have sold for more than $1 million over asking.
2. Why is AI different from past tech booms?
It's about concentration. In past booms, wealth was spread across thousands of workers at many public companies. This time a relatively small group, mostly people at a few AI companies and their investors, holds a very large amount of money. Redfin estimated that employees of the two biggest AI labs could theoretically buy nearly 29% of the SF metro's housing if both companies go public at expected valuations. That's buying power on paper, not actual purchases, but it shows the scale.
3. But so many tech workers are being laid off. What percentage of buyers are AI workers?
Nobody publishes that number. Here's what we do know. Bay Area tech employers filed layoff notices for more than 14,500 workers in the year ending June. Meanwhile, AI-related jobs are growing and pay very well. It's a two-track market. You don't need a big share of the workforce to move prices when inventory is tight and many buyers pay cash.
4. The AI companies aren't public yet. Where is the money coming from?
Several places:
• Tender offers. These are company-approved sales where employees sell some shares for cash before an IPO. Billions have already been paid out this way.
• Loans against private stock, for employees who don't want to sell.
• High salaries that can support a large mortgage.
• Earlier tech wealth from previous jobs at big public companies.
• Investors, not just employees.
Expectation matters too. Some buyers are moving now, before the IPOs, betting that today's prices will look cheap later.
5. What about sellers accepting AI stock instead of cash?
It makes great headlines, but it's mostly hype. Private shares are hard to transfer, and reports say these deals haven't actually closed with stock.
What this means for you
• Buyers: Expect competition, especially at higher price points. Be prepared with financing, a clear budget, and a strategy before you tour.
• Sellers: Demand is strong, but it isn't even across every neighborhood or price range. Pricing still needs to be based on real local comps.
• Everyone: A market driven by one industry can shift quickly. Make decisions based on your own long-term plans, not headlines.
If you're thinking about buying or selling in the Richmond or Sunset, I'm happy to walk you through what's actually happening on your block.
Sangmi Ichi Halvorson · REALTOR®
Licensee: Sangmi Halvorson · CA DRE #01973163
Golden Gate Realty and Finance Inc. · CA DRE #02361979 · Equal Housing Opportunity
Born in Korea. Built in SF.
Not legal or tax advice. Consult a licensed professional. Market data from Redfin, Bloomberg, and news reports as of September 2026.
